Impact-region evolution
Each stage is headed by its recorded MPC submission time and the cumulative number of observations available at that instant. Real PNG frames load lazily and wrap to the available width. Every edge uses rounded latitude and longitude limits; a rounded kilometre scale is shown below each map.
How to read the evolution
The cards are ordered by the time an observation package was recorded as received by the Minor Planet Center, not by the exposure time printed in an OBS80 line. The observation count is cumulative: it is the exact number of records that this reconstruction allowed the orbit fit to use at that stage. A later card can therefore contain observations made earlier but submitted in a later package.
Where Find_Orb supplied a usable covariance, Target-Earth propagated exactly 3,000 correlated orbit variants with the same physical model. Red dots show variants that reached the sourced 100 km collision altitude while inbound, the yellow outline is the descriptive 95% surface ellipse, and cyan marks the independently sourced confirmed impact coordinate. The percentage is a sample fraction of this reconstruction, not an official MPC impact probability. A stage with no valid covariance or no impact solution remains visibly empty; it is never replaced by an invented ellipse.
Each map is framed independently around its complete retained impact-position cloud with an additional ten-percent margin. Rounded latitude and longitude boundaries and the rounded kilometre scale deliberately avoid implying more geographic precision than the numerical solution supports. Select a frame to open its full-resolution PNG; the page uses the same PNG as its compact overview.
A fit-branch warning means that the newly enlarged observation prefix led Find_Orb to a substantially different local orbit solution. Prefix SHA-256, submission sequence and retained propagation fingerprints were checked, so the warning is not a file-to-batch assignment error. Uncertainty is not required to shrink monotonically; the raw reconstruction stays visible instead of being silently smoothed or replaced.
Submission-to-submission map film
Valid result stages hold for three seconds. The viewport then zooms for three seconds using the current stage data, followed by a one-second crossfade to the next stage. Stages without an impact result are excluded.
Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors.
Final all-observation atmospheric-to-ground projection
Loading the retained final-stage status…
Pseudo-MPEC reports
These are Target-Earth analytical reconstruction pages, never MPC-issued circulars. Every retained stage remains individually displayable and linked.
Orbit and impact reconstruction after each submission
Select a header to sort. Drag headers to reorder; drag the right edge to resize. The initial order is always MPC submission time ascending.
Columns
Impact target and 95% error ellipse after each submission
A blank ellipse is an explicit insufficient-sample or no-result state, not zero uncertainty.
Columns
Complete Monte Carlo impact positions
Every retained impact position remains reachable. To keep object changes fast, choose one batch and load only that lossless point file; the complete CSV contains all batches.
Columns
Complete retained OBS80 observations
The original 80-character record is retained unchanged. Observation UTC includes hh:mm:ss; submission UTC is the final column and the default sort key.